Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,804,814$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.74 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,739,268.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,739,268.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $199,509$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,831.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.4)}}\) (asimptote \(186,831.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,014,634$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $697,663$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{760,486.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.4)}}\) (asimptote \(760,486.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $73,493$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,364.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 113.2)}}\) (asimptote \(77,364.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,711$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,203$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,495.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(118,495.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,257$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,643.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,643.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,581$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $145,750$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,540.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 66.1)}}\) (asimptote \(125,540.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,267$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,000.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,000.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,891$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,616$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,053.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(74,053.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,184$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,402.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,402.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,367$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,289$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(6.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,476.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(123,476.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,047$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,919.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,919.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,574$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,444$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,123.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,123.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,119$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(172 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,119.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,119.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,466$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,712$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(261 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,938.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 182.4)}}\) (asimptote \(97,938.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $706$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{897.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 165.8)}}\) (asimptote \(897.1\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,454$ on 2020-09-20