Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,804,814$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.74 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,739,268.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,739,268.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $199,509$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,831.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.4)}}\) (asimptote \(186,831.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,014,634$ on 2020-09-20

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $697,663$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{760,486.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.4)}}\) (asimptote \(760,486.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $73,493$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,364.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 113.2)}}\) (asimptote \(77,364.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,711$ on 2020-09-20

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,203$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,495.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(118,495.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,257$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,643.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,643.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,581$ on 2020-09-20

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $145,750$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,540.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 66.1)}}\) (asimptote \(125,540.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,267$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,000.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,000.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,891$ on 2020-09-20

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,616$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,053.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(74,053.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,184$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,402.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,402.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,367$ on 2020-09-20

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,289$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,476.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(123,476.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,047$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,919.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,919.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,574$ on 2020-09-20

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,444$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,123.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,123.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,119$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(172 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,119.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,119.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,466$ on 2020-09-20

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,712$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(261 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,938.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 182.4)}}\) (asimptote \(97,938.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $706$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{897.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 165.8)}}\) (asimptote \(897.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,454$ on 2020-09-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 56%
Mexico recovered 37%
Belize recovered 33%
Panama recovered 12%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,553$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,826.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,826.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $811$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(865.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,181$ on 2020-09-20

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,627$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(0.754 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,724.9}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 158.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,724.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(0.0362 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 147.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $688$ on 2020-09-20